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?What are the prospects that New Zealand will hold a referendum on becoming a republic during the next ten years?

Is there any prospect that during the next ten years there will be a referendum on New Zealand becoming a republic? This referendum, or public vote, can lean towards either keeping our Westminster system of government under the rule of the crown or to abolish this system and move onto a self-ruling republic. A republic is a country where the head of state is reliant on the approval of the public (Holden, 2011) . This head of state is elected on the terms of the citizens of the state, or country, and will serve as the head of state; traditionally until the next election. A referendum of this magnitude will very much depend on political and public support, a review of both the current constitution and other commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia, and the cost of a referendum.

Political Opinion

Jim Bolger and Helen Clark both acknowledge that in the future New Zealand will become a republic and John Key sees a republic as "Inevitable" , however none of them wanted a republic occurring within their governments. Although there is an "inevitable" republic looming for New Zealanders there is still not enough political support in the idea of cutting ties with the Crown. Figures such as past Governor-General Sir Michael Hardie Boys claim that 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it' , whereas Sir Paul Reeves says "if renouncing knighthoods was a prerequisite to being a citizen of a republic, I think it would be worth it." In 2006 Helen Clark commissioned a committee inquiry on this under the leadership of Peter Dunne. Peter Dunne believes in a New Zealand republic and has discussed the possibility of there being a referendum on this by the year 2016 (Milne, 2006). It would seem that because of this mixed support for a republic there is a possibility that here a referendum may be useful.

Public Opinion

It would seem one of the main driving forces behind the proposed change to a republic is the lack of popularity of Prince Charles. With this break down in support for the royal family as "Ever increasing numbers are questioning the place of the monarchy" (Holden, 2011) , there is a cause for a referendum being held within the next ten years - especially if Queen Elizabeth II abdicates or passes away during this time frame. There is not much chance of the Queen passing soon due to longevity of her mother, but that still does not mean that she will not abdicate within the next ten years making Prince Charles into King Charles. In 2008 the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) asked the question on the republic versus monarchy debate with just under 50% responding in support for the monarchy with 38.2% in support of the republic (Cox & Miller, 2010) . The support for a monarchy was weaker than in the late 1990s where the NZES survey coincided with the pro-monarchy referendum campaign in Australia (Cox & Miller, 2010) . It would seem that due to this information there is a decrease in public support for a monarchy but does this mean that a referendum is needed within the next ten years? If the support for a republic increases in the election survey within the next three elections then maybe there is a chance that such a referendum can be undertaken.

The Constitutional problems

If New Zealand was to have a referendum on becoming a republic specific attention must be applied to the current constitution. When discussing the prospects of holding a referendum, the Treaty of Waitangi's ties with the Crown needs to be acknowledged. The Treaty is "Simply the most important document in New Zealand's history" (Cooke, 1990) and therefore many believe that the Treaty needs to be honoured. However the creation of a New Zealand republic questions the integrity of this document which is the main source of the unwritten constitution of New Zealand. However this said there are constitutional laws written down but they do not limit parliamentary powers nor are they judicially enforced (Mulgan, 2010). A referendum that was to ask the public of New Zealand should be enforced with a constitutional review and its findings, simplified into an understandable manner so that everyone holds the ability to vote conscious of what the box they ticked could mean to them and the rest of New Zealand.

Other Commonwealth countries

A basis for a referendum of the manner toward changing the system of government now held, Westminster, and a new structure would be to observe the effects it has had on other countries, namely Canada and Australia. In Canada there have been strong calls to create a Canadian republic for many years. However "Under Section 9 of the Constitution Act, 1867, 'The Executive Government... is hereby declared... vested in the Queen'" (Mallory, 1991). This vesting with the Queen, or in this case the Crown, makes it difficult to move toward a self ruling republic without first cutting ties with the Commonwealth. This is not the problem with Australia's movements toward republic. Australia, formally "a constitutional monarchy" (Galligan, 1991) has since the 1999 referendum on becoming a republic support for the monarchy has been steadily decreasing with a survey not long before the referendum placing the support for a republic at 65.8% in opposition to the 34.2% in favour of the monarchy. "During the three weeks leading up to the Australian referendum, support for the monarchy... [reached] a high of 67 per cent" (Cox & Miller, 2010). However, much like New Zealand the support for a republic is on the rise and to many another referendum would seem highly likely in the near future. It would seem that comparing the results of the NZES survey to the results of the Australian referendum shows that New Zealand is very likely to follow Australia's example in the event of an Australian republic.

The cost of a referendum

No matter how much support for a referendum to change New Zealand to a republic there needs to be consideration to the cost of such a referendum taking place. The cost of 2011's referendum of New Zealand's voting system was estimated at around $25 Million. This referendum was one of two government initiated referendums on the voting system, with the first occurring in 1993. Both referendums were costly to create and campaign for. In the case of holding a referendum on the creation of a republic in New Zealand there needs to be consideration that there is likely going to be a high cost to this. The best option for a referendum on a New Zealand republic is to hold a Citizen's Initiated Referendum (CIR), requiring a petition to be signed by a number of supporters. This CIR is easier to bring to the attention of the public as it shows that there are people just like them who are involved in making New Zealand a republican state. However it is rather unlikely that this will occur within the next ten years.

Conclusion In conclusion it would seem that even though there is a number of people in support of a republic and people willing to initiate a referendum there are many factors that contribute to the chance that it will not be held within the next ten years. Such factors include the mixed support of important political figures such as Helen Clark and Sir Michael Hardie Boys , and the possibility that Queen Elizabeth II will follow her mother's longevity and not abdicate within the period of ten years, which to many who disfavour Prince Charles becoming King of England, is a driving force toward republic. Other factors include Constitutional reviews and the problems facing other Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia. Lastly there is the cost and initiation of such a referendum being introduced that needs to be factored in. Therefore it would seem that there is little prospect that there will be a referendum on New Zealand becoming a republic within the next ten years.

Bibliography

Cooke, P. (1990). 'Introduction'. New Zealand Universities Law Review , 1.

Cox, N., & Miller, R. (2010). 'Monarchy or Republic?'. In R. Miller, New Zealand Government and Politics (5th ed., pp. 130-44). Melbourne, Australia: Oxford University Press.

Galligan, B. (1991). 'Australia'. In D. Butler, & D. A. Low, Sovereigns and Surrogares: Constitutional Heads of State in the Commonwealth (pp. 61-107). New York: St. Martins Press Inc.

Holden, L. J. (2011). The New Zealand Republic Handbook (2nd ed.). Auckland: Republican Movement of Aotearoa New Zealand.

Ladley, A. (1997). 'The Head of State: The Crown, the Queen and the Governor-General'. In

R. Miller, New Zealand Politics in Transition (pp. 51-61). Auckland: Oxford University Press.

Mallory, J. (1991). 'Canada'. In D. Butler, & D. A. Low, Sovereigns and Surrogares: Constitutional Heads of State in the Commonwealth (pp. 41-60). New York: St. Martin's Press Inc.

Milne, J. (2006, August 2). 'Ditch Queen, say former Governor-General. The New Zealand Herald .

Mulgan, R. (2010). Politics in New Zealand (3rd ed.). Auckland: Auckland University Press.